Editor's Note
This editor’s note highlights the key facts and market implications behind “Keda Manufacturing (600499): Earnings Beat Expec”, with emphasis on sourcing, product fit, fabrication, logistics, or buyer impact.
Earnings Brief
On April 23, 2026, the company released its first-quarter report for 2026: In Q1 2026, the company achieved revenue of 4.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 587 million yuan, up 69% year-on-year; and net profit attributable to the parent company excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 570 million yuan, up 77% year-on-year. Despite a significant negative contribution from foreign exchange in Q1, earnings exceeded expectations, mainly due to strong performance in overseas building materials, ceramic machinery, lithium battery anode materials, and lithium carbonate.
Operational Analysis
(1) Overseas Building Materials Segment: It is estimated that in Q1 2026, the tile business continued to see both volume and price increases quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, while glass production continued to ramp up. In terms of capacity expansion, the company is steadily advancing projects including glass in Peru (South America), the second phase of ceramics in Côte d'Ivoire, the second phase of ceramics in Kisumu, Kenya, ceramics in Guinea, and glass in Ghana, with plans to commence production gradually between 2026 and 2027. On April 9, 2026, the company updated the progress of the restructuring of Guangdong Tefu International, introducing high-quality shareholders and strengthening the cooperation between Keda and Senda.
(2) Ceramic Machinery Segment: Facing multiple challenges such as industry cycle adjustments, the business experienced temporary pressure. The company is steadily improving the quality of business development by actively promoting the implementation of intelligent production line projects, driving product upgrades, deepening overseas market expansion, and leveraging technological innovation and market penetration.
(3) Lanke Lithium Industry Segment: Benefiting from a significant increase in lithium prices, the unit profitability of the lithium carbonate segment (investment income) improved markedly. In Q1 2026, lithium carbonate sales volume was 8,400 tons, with an average ex-tax price of 132,500 yuan per ton for the quarter, and a unit net profit of 69,300 yuan per ton. This segment contributed 254 million yuan to net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 2026.
(4) Financial Highlights: ① Financial expenses in Q1 were 218 million yuan, compared to 246 million yuan for the full year of 2025; the absolute value is relatively high, likely related to exchange losses. ② Administrative expenses in Q1 were 305 million yuan, compared to 234 million yuan in Q1 2025, likely related to incentive expenses.
Earnings Forecast, Valuation, and Rating
Benefiting from both volume and price increases in the overseas building materials segment, the company's Q1 earnings exceeded expectations. We have raised our earnings forecast. Assuming the restructuring is completed within the year and Tefu International is fully consolidated, we estimate the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2026-2028 to be 3.312 billion yuan, 3.935 billion yuan, and 4.266 billion yuan, respectively. Without considering the restructuring, we estimate earnings for 2026-2028 to be 2.413 billion yuan, 2.802 billion yuan, and 3.142 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14x, 12x, and 11x, respectively. We maintain a "Buy" rating.
Risk Warnings
Expansion of new overseas building material product categories may fall short of expectations; acquisition uncertainties; foreign exchange risk; declining demand for domestic building materials machinery; and volatility in lithium carbonate prices.
Source: Read the original article | Published: April 23, 2026